Is the Florida Real Estate Market Slowing Down for Retirement buyers??

Is the Florida Real Estate Market Slowing Down for Retirement home buyers?

Yes, the same way a car going 60 miles an hour seems to be going slow after its been speeding at 100 miles an hour for the last ten miles. We are in a more stable market than folks around here have seen in quite a while.  There is no more “leading the market” with a slightly higher price to sell your home  when you retire while you wait for the market to catch up with your expectations. It might be a longer wait that you anticipated. Florida has eight weeks left in this tourist season, and I have already seen buyers leave without buying there retirement or second home figuring they can come back in a few months and have better deals.   Trigger fever is being rewarded with some price drops as  sellers realize  that we are in a slow, but steady, market.  But be careful buyers, inventory of prime product that you want, may not be around when you come back. There will be no large drops for buyers , and buyers, no larger increases either.

Southwest Florida Price Trends for Homes

Historic Sales Price Trend

In the chart above you can see that peak pricing was back in January 2006, and five years later we saw the current rise to today. We are in a slight valley here in march of this year, but I do expect slower and steady rise in prices. Next lets look at volume:

Historic Number of Listings

The chart above is JUST HOMES LISTED FOR SALE IN THE MULTIPLE LISTING SYSTEM. I put this in all caps because it is important to know that new home sales from developers like DR Horton, GL homes, etc. are not listed in the MLS, and developers like these have long leads times for their new homes.

 

Some observations/predictions:

  1. There will be no big swings up or down in pricing in the short term.
  2. The downward pressure (lowering of ask prices) you see today is just sellers getting more realistic with their offering pricing, not  really a lowering of prices paid.
  3. As in a discount store that tells you it will lower prices every day until an item is sold, tomorrow you may come back and that item you had your eye on will be gone.
  4. If you see a house that you want , buy it now. Inventory of desirable homes is shrinking
  5. The increase in listing numbers is indicative of prices normalcy. “The prices are going up much more noe, lets sell.
  6. Canadians are selling, and will get back in when the Canadian dollar strengthens.
  7. Buying new makes more sense than ever. (Low cost to own)
  8.  The biggest growth in building in Southwest Florida is for the retirement market
  9.  Prices will be higher next year and inventory will be  dear.
  10. The “meat of the market” (sub $300,000 homes) are becoming scarce

 

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